Beat My CFB Picks For A Tailgate Package

Every Friday morning during CFB season I join Columbia sports talk legend Teddy Hefner on his Fox Sports 1400 show to pick some of the biggest games of the week. If you beat my picks you may win a tailgate package from Mathias Sandwich Shop on St Andrews Rd. Text your picks and your answer for the tiebreaker to 803-315-3292

Kentucky at South Carolina (+6.5) Preview

7:45 PM ET, SEC Network

Kentucky heads to Columbia to face South Carolina, with the Gamecocks getting 6.5 points at home. The Wildcats are 2-1 and coming off a bye week. They're also looking for revenge after last years 31-6 humiliation. Kentucky's pass defense is bad giving up 278 YPG ranking them 123'rd in the country. South Carolina's Pass D is solid giving up 194 YPG ranking them 58th. Where the Gamecocks are extremely vulnerable apparently is against the run. But put a little asterisk next to that. Their last games have been against teams that average over 6 yards per carry. Of teams that have 140 or more rushing attempts this year there are only 8 other teams in America that can match or better Vandy (6.3 YPC) and Mizzou (6.11 YPC) Sold out Williams-Brice Stadium will be rocking, as fans recognize how important this game is! Sellers is the key to victory. Kentucky is #15 in pressuring the QB but only 78th in sacks. If the 2024 Sellers reappears and explodes for long runs or escapes to throw against that weak pass D the Gamecocks will blow them out. If last weeks Seller's is on the field taking the sacks when pressure comes it'll be a long night. I believe last week LaNorris wasn't himself perhaps still shaky after the concussion. I believe we get a much better version this week and combined with South Carolina's crowd Gamecocks cover.

LSU at Ole Miss (-1.5) Preview

3:30 PM ET, ABC

A SEC slugfest in Oxford, with #13 Ole Miss favored by 1.5 over #4 LSU. The Tigers are 4-0, fresh off a 56-10 demolition of SE Louisiana where Garrett Nussmeier diced for 320 yards and 4 TDs. LSU's O-line is clicking, allowing zero sacks, and their run D is top-20 (3.2 YPC). Ole Miss is 4-0 too, rolling Tulane 45-10 behind QB Trinidad Chambliss's efficient 22-30, 280 yards and 3 scores. Trinidad started the year as a backup to Austin Simmons who was injured against Kentucky. Ole Miss announced they are sticking with Trinidad in this very important game but Simmons may be available as a backup. The Rebels' defense is nasty, with 8 sacks in the last two games, but they allowed 4.5 yards per rush last week.

Vaught-Hemingway will be electric, but LSU's balanced attack—Nussmeier's arm plus 200 rushing yards per game—tests Ole Miss's secondary, ranked 45th in passing YPG. Chambliss is sharp but unproven against elites, and Ole Miss's O-line gave up 3 sacks vs. Tulane. This one's a shootout, but LSU's experience on the road edges it. Tigers cover as road dogs.

Alabama at Georgia (-3) Preview

7:30 PM ET, ABC

Primetime in Athens pits Alabama against Georgia, with the Bulldogs favored by 3. Kirby Smart has a winning record against every school but Alabama where he is now 1-6 after last years shocking loss. This year the Tide are 2-1, rebounding with a 38-14 thumping of Wisconsin where QB Ty Simpson carved for 280 yards and 2 TDs. Alabama's front seven is ferocious, sacking the Badgers 5 times, but their secondary bent for 220 passing yards. Georgia's 3-0, dominating Tennessee 44-41 in a thriller led by QB Gunner Stockton's 300 yards and 3 TDs. The Dawgs' run game averaged 5.2 YPC last week, but their D allowed 380 total yards.

Sanford Stadium's night game is a nightmare for visitors, and Georgia's O-line ranks top-10 in protection. Simpson's mobility helps, but Alabama's a bit overmatched it seems. Stockton's poise and Georgia's depth pull away late. Bulldogs cover at home.

Oregon at Penn State (-3.5) Preview

7:30 PM ET, NBC

The White Out in Happy Valley features Oregon at Penn State, with the Nittany Lions favored by 3.5. The Ducks are 4-0, torching Oregon State 41-7 as QB Dante Moore threw for 305 yards and 4 TDs. Oregon's speed on the edges is lethal, averaging 42 points per game, but their D gave up 4.1 YPC last week. Penn State's 3-0, cruising past Villanova 52-6 with Drew Allar going 20-25 for 250 yards and 3 scores. The Lions' run D is elite (#8, 2.9 YPC), and their secondary forces turnovers (5 in three games).

Beaver Stadium's atmosphere is unmatched, and Penn State's balanced attack—Allar plus 200 rushing yards—exploits Oregon's occasional lapses. Moore's a stud, but the Ducks' road test in the Big Ten could expose them. Lions' home edge and defense win a close one. Nittany Lions cover.

Duke at Syracuse (+5.5) Preview

12:00 PM ET, ESPN

Duke travels to the Dome to face Syracuse, getting 5.5 points as road dogs. The Blue Devils are 2-2 after a wild 45-33 shootout win over NC State, where QB Darian Mensah threw for 320 yards and 3 TDs despite 2 picks. Duke's offense ranks 26th nationally (38 PPG), but their D is leaky (#92, 28 PPG allowed). Syracuse is 2-2, upsetting Clemson 34-21 behind backup QB Rickie Collins's 244 yards and 2 TDs after Steve Angeli's injury. The Orange's pass game exploded (353 YPG), but their run D allowed 180 yards last week.

The Carrier Dome isn't a fortress, but Syracuse's home energy and pass rush (4 sacks vs. Clemson) rattle Mensah. Duke's O-line struggled with 3 sacks vs. NC State, and Collins could exploit their secondary. Orange keep the momentum rolling. Syracuse covers.

Virginia Tech at NC State (-10.5) Preview

7:00 PM ET, The CW

NC State hosts Virginia Tech with a 10.5-point spread in Raleigh. The Wolfpack are 3-1, rallying past Duke 33-45? Wait, no—clinging to a 35-31 win over Virginia last week where QB CJ Bailey threw for 280 yards and 2 TDs. NC State's offense ranks 59th (32 PPG), but their D is #107 (30 PPG allowed). Virginia Tech's 1-3, scraping by Wofford 38-6 with Kyron Drones managing 200 yards and a TD. The Hokies' D is solid (#45 rush D), but their O sputtered early (18 PPG first three games).

Carter-Finley will be packed, and NC State's ground game (4.2 YPC) wears down Tech's front. Drones is dual-threat but sacked 4 times last week. Wolfpack's home dominance (6-1 last seven) and Bailey's poise pull away. NC State covers big.

Auburn at Texas A&M (-6.5) Preview

3:30 PM ET, ESPN

Auburn heads to College Station to battle Texas A&M, favored by 6.5. The Tigers are 2-2 after a tough 24-17 loss to Oklahoma, where QB Jackson Arnold went 16-35 for 220 yards but took 10 sacks. Auburn's run game is stout (4.8 YPC), but their O-line is a turnstile (#110 sack rate). Texas A&M's 4-0, edging Notre Dame 41-40 with Marcel Reed's game-winning scramble TD. The Aggies' D is top-15 (18 PPG), with 6 sacks last week.

Kyle Field's 12th Man makes it brutal for visitors, and A&M's balanced attack (35 PPG) feasts on Auburn's shaky secondary (250 pass YPG allowed). Arnold needs protection he won't get. Aggies roll at home. Texas A&M covers.

Tie breaker: South Carolina rushing yards vs Kentucky.

Last week Officially Gamecocks rushed for a total of -9 yards. Yes they lost 9 on the ground. But that’s because the count sack yardage and LaNorris was sacked 5 times and lost about 10 yards per sack. But even without any sacks the rushing game was abysmal! Adaway 3 rushes for 7 yards. Fuller 2 for 7 and the piece de resistance Rashul Faison rushed 6 times for a total of 5 yards. We also had 1 from our receiver Brian Rowe Jr for a total of 0. All told it was 12 rushes for a total of 19 yards. LaNorris had also picked up about 35 yards if he didn’t have any sacks. So we almost had 55 yards or so.

On the bright side Vandy and Mizzou are the 2 best run D’s we’ll see this year ranked 10th and 11th in the nation. Kentucky is ranked 70th and gives up 137 YPG. South Carolina after 4 games is ranked the 7th worst run team in America at just 80.2 YPG. Kentucky has only played 3 this year and 2 of them were cupcakes. They gave up 220 on the ground to Ole Miss which is almost their average after 4 games of 218 pg. I’m guessing we do better than our average but worse than Kentucky’s D average.

110 yards on the ground for the Gamecocks.